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Lauchs

@ Lauchs @lemmy.world

Posts
17
Comments
387
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • Totally reasonable.

    And sometimes (often, if I'm being honest) I find myself getting tired of shitty people being able to do and say shitty things and somehow it's rude to call it out.

    Fully agree. It's goddamn exhausting trying to be the good guys. Feels.like the other side gets to cheat, like the villains throwing civilians in harms way so the heroes have to save them etc.

    But the older I get and the more concerned about the world we're leaving for my friends' kids, the more I care about winning elections instead of feeling smugly superior. (I said, while being smugly superior at people on my side whom I feel are being childish and/or counter-productive.)

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • Are you maybe responding to a different comment? Or who is the they with the pithy sentence?

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • We won 2018, 2020, 2022 mostly on the highground.

    Pretty decent (couldn't resist) track record.

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • Jesus. Out curiosity, what percentage of his supporters would you feel comfortable calling nazis?

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • I think you're maybe misreading the point? Calling trump supporters garbage alienates those people who are in the middle (who clearly exist as evidenced by the polling swings over the last few months.)

    I'd rather we do whatever to win every possible vote instead of pointlessly/counter-productively namecalling from the moral highground but maybe that's just me.

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • I love there were 2 sentences respond ling to the point and then a diatribe about the other side is evil.

    I'm not arguing the merits of maga. What I'm saying is pretty simple, if you were on the fence or say, one of the (I think it's quarter-ish?) of Latinos supporting trump who was maybe repelled by that comedian, Biden just went and called you the same damn thing. And he's the president, not a warm up act amidst a dozen or whatever speakers.

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • Which makes them more likely to vote...

  • Biden Slams Trump: "The Only Garbage I See Floating Out There Is His Supporters"

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  • Washington Post cancellations hit 250,000 – 10% of subscribers

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  • Totally fair. And there are definitely reasons to dislike Bezos but on the which of the two is worse... Going Musk over Bezos feels a little.like the folks claiming trump will be better for Palestineans. Bezos didn't let his paper endorse trump, Musk is full on bribing people, campaign rallying for trump etc.

    But to each their own, like I said, plenty of reasons to dislike Bezos.

  • Washington Post cancellations hit 250,000 – 10% of subscribers

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  • Isn't Starlink Musk's outfit?

  • Why Is This Election Even Close?

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  • I'll leave you to complaining about the media inventing sexism, racism and fascism.

    No one said this but I'm cool ending this interaction.

    As a self growth thing though, I do strongly suggest trying to make a friend who votes differently. It can be frustrating but it helps you understand that there are in fact people who disgagree with you and gasp aren't racist/sexist/fascist.

    ("But they're voting for one!" "And your sweatshop clothes are the physical embodiement of sexism/racism/colonialism, are you also a write off as a person?)

    Cheers.

  • Why Is This Election Even Close?

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  • If it's not the majority or close to it, then it's probably not why the election is close (which is, if you'll remember, the question of the original post.)

  • Why Is This Election Even Close?

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  • I think if you've found the majority of people being fascist, that's a you conflating disagreement or supporting trump with fascism.

    Which is easy, fun but intellectually lazy and kinda how we got to where we are.

  • Why Is This Election Even Close?

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  • Has any incumbent government coming out of covid/inflation survived? It's not an excuse but people tend to focus on that which affects them personally, otherwise sweatshop clothes wouldn't exist.

    And the Left wing media ecosystem has spent the last decade decrying sp much as sexist, racist or fascist that independents etc have largely tuned it out.

    Breaks my heart but that's where we are.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

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  • Hi there! Sorry for the delay, I rarely Lemmy on weekends. And made the foolish mistake of posting something that took off towards the end of last week.

    Anyhow, I think your analysis is really interesting! Admittedly, I'm a cheapskate and haven't paid for the Silver Bulletin, so I'm quite curious to see what Silver's model would have done taking only the same polls as VotHub does.

    That being said, I think that even the VoteHub models are showing the same sort of movement in the polls, as recently as Oct 6 VoteHub showed the two candidates seperated by almost 3.5% nationally, which is pretty significant. However, even their model now shows Harris' lead cut by half, down to 1.7% And this is from a model that only accepts non partisan polling etc! Looking over their recent polls, of the four polls in the 3 Blue Wall states in the last week, none showed Harris ahead. (At least on the 20th, there was one that showed Harris up by 4 in Michigan.)

    Now for the part that would fascinate me about the Silver/VoteHub model comparison (I'm not going to lie, this conversation is making me want to drop the $30ish, just to see and of course for election night/week/month) is that even using the exact same inputs, for a race this close, you could easily see different outcomes by different modelers. Some put more weight to the possibility of uncorrelated polling errors between states, others between correlated polling misses by certain demographics (and of course, models might split those demographics differently, e.g., figuring that a Florida Latino may be more likely to be Cuban than of Mexican heritage and thus respond very differently to accusations of socialism etc.) All that to say, you could very easily put the exact same polls into different models and you ought to see somewhat different projections.

    Again, I really appreciate you diving into the piece and coming back with solid evidence, you are exactly the type of person making Lemmy a place I want to hang out.

  • Removed Locked

    Jill Stain has a chance?

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  • She has a chance to hand the election to trump, yes.

  • Why Fascism Doesn’t Stick to Trump

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  • how deep do you have to dig before you understand "I'll be a dictator on day one" is not ok?

    I think most independent voters watched that and laughed. Most dictators don't say they'll be one.

    Frankly, I think that comment is one of the more clever things trump has done. It got huge play on the Left with everyone else going "come on, no dictator would say that." But because Left leaning media treated it with the same breathless urgency with which they treat his actual scary dictator-esque musings, it waters it all down.

    I think this is part of why people tune out coverage of this stuff, it's hard to separate what we should actually be concerned about from the silliness.

  • Why Fascism Doesn’t Stick to Trump

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  • The optimist in me thinks that maybe they're more plugged into municipal politics or their local charities or whatever. The realist in me says some people are just broken, exhausted, working multiple jobs and struggling to keep food on the table. The cynic in me says it's the same as well off people who think of themselves as good people while wearing sweatshop clothes; it's a lot easier to not think about the wider world too carefully.

  • Why Fascism Doesn’t Stick to Trump

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  • To an independent voter, concerned about inflation etc, it's easy to chalk up accusations of fascism as Democrat fear mongering, akin to how the Right describes everything they don't like as communism.

    It doesn't help that culturally, the Left is associated with calling almost everything sexist/racist/another ist.

    Even if we're right about all of it, to an Independent who doesn't agree, those cries just get muted the same way I assume no one here has been remotely convinced/swayed by all the accusations of socialism or communism.