Skip Navigation

InitialsDiceBearhttps://github.com/dicebear/dicebearhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/„Initials” (https://github.com/dicebear/dicebear) by „DiceBear”, licensed under „CC0 1.0” (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/)L

Lauchs

@ Lauchs @lemmy.world

Posts
17
Comments
387
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • Here in Michigan, we know the Democrats have failed on Gaza – and they’ll pay dearly for it | Mona Mawari

    Jump

  • And the consequence for putting trump in power is going to be many more dead innocents.

    I don't know if I'd call that karma so much as the consequence of acting like a petulant child on real world issues.

    Admittedly, if you don't actually care about the innocents in the middle East and are just another privileged first worlder who really only cares about themselves, these aren't actually consequences. But for those who will die, they are very real consequences.

  • Linus Torvalds affirms expulsion of Russian maintainers

    Jump

  • I mean, it probably would've been ideal then but as usual, America was recovering from/embroiled in the last Conservative disasters (financial crisis, Afghanistan/Iraq.) And Obama had just burned a lot of political capital giving people healthcare.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • This might be the best comment reply I've had on lemmy. When I'm not half cut coming home from soccer, I will dig into this and either agree or give you a worthy response.

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • I gave her extra head skritches, kisses and a treat for you! I think she approved.

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • She sounds adorable, sorry you had to lose her, I hope you're getting through it as best you can. My elderly cutie pie is deteriorating and loudly demands affection sporadically but I know I'd rather have her howling at me at whatever o'clock than not.

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • Glad mine isn't the only one!

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • That seems wild but adorable.

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • I upgraded from a twin to queen but now thr cat feels more comfortable in the bed if it's just us. But I've been trained by twin bed relationships to sleep on one side so it's been an unlearning process. And sometimes when I'm on the side and she's in the middle I have less space than I did with the twin!

  • Does your cat let you sleep/nap not facing them?

    Jump

  • Trust a cat to find the least convenient "compromise."

  • What is your Halloween Costume this year?

    Jump

  • Going as Mr Clean. Seems simple and fun. Although, with Halloween parties being what they are, we'll see how long those pristine whites last.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • You are fundamentally misunderstanding the difference between polling aggregators, like 538 and a poll.

    Though, if you really believe what you're saying, how crazy lucky do you think, 538 must have been to get 32/35 senate races right, 417/435 house races and the presidential rave. Seeing as they repeated the performance in 2022, those lucky jerks should be going to Vegas, not working! /s

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • This is getting into some pretty nonsense conspiracy level.

    Given that high quality pollsters like Emerson, Sienna, the Times are all showing similar movements in their polls, your theory about buying out reputable pollsters requires most pollsters to simultaneously burn their reputations, be open to corruption etc allegations and presumably suffer criminal penalties as most of their polls are technically done for a client. And none of whom are instead exposing the very offer as a huge media boost? And for what? So the polls look marginally better for trump?

    This kind of wishful thinking reminds me of listening to stolen election nonsense, where yeah, you can make believe a conspiracy where the Dems bought off a bunch of judges, election officials, forensic analysts etc but it beggars belief.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • You do realize that most people do not vote, right?

    Except that isn't true. In 2020, 2/3rds of eligible voters voted. Which, if your math is rusty, is a healthy majority of people.

    And that most people are indeed idiots when it comes to politics? It's those people that will not turn out when it's needed because they saw a pollster say their candidate was ahead.

    I mean, if this is correct, polls showing trump ahead should depress Right votes which I presume we agree is a good thing. (Though, this seems counter to the whole narrative about Republican pollsters flooding the zone.)

    I dunno, it really seems like you have a lot of problems with polls that are simply misunderstanding, like not knowing how aggregation works, not understanding what a probabilistic prediction is or just ignoring reality (like the impressive number of accurate predictions in most cycles.)

    I think to dislike something, you should be moderately informed about it. Your attitude to polling feels a bit like right wing attitudes towards lgbtq stuff "I don't get it, I don't want to learn about it so I dislike it!"

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • Goodness gracious.

    In 2016, 538 argued trump had a 1/4 chance of winning. And the thing about 1/4 changes is that they happen every so often, about, oh. 1/4 times.

    And meanwhile, if you actually read what I quoted, you'll note how astoundingly accurate they were in 2020.

    And if you or anyone else is dumb enough to see "trump has a 51% chance of winning" and that somehow makes you not want to vote, damn, how many tries does it take you to put your shoes on the correct feet? Three?

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • All they do is predict the future.

    Here's 538 going over the 2020 predictions (in a historically difficult polling year):

    Even in a year when the polls were mediocre to poor, our forecasts largely identified the right outcomes. They correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • This article is pure silliness but extrapolating from it.to say all polls are useless is to miss even the point of the article!

    Yes, national polls aren't particularly helpful because of the electoral college. Which means state level polling is what matters. And polls 6 months out, are not helpful. This is why no polling aggregator is still including them.

    Meanwhile, in reality, the polling aggregators pretty much called every 2022 midterm race. In 2020, 538 "correctly identified the winners of the presidency (Joe Biden), the U.S. Senate (Democrats, after the Georgia runoffs) and the U.S. House (Democrats, although by a narrower-than-expected margin). They were also largely accurate in identifying the winners in individual states and races, identifying the outcome correctly in 48 of 50 presidential states (we also missed the 2nd Congressional District in Maine), 32 of 35 Senate races1 and 417 of 435 House races."

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • Calling Silver a right winger is more than a bit silly. He's not as far left as some but damn, to call hin right wing, that's just some kind of ridiculous.

    And no, he's not affiliated with 538 but he is explaining how polling aggregation, which 538 and others do, works.

  • Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

    Jump

  • Yes, but their "house effects" (how much their polls lean Republican or Democrat) are accounted for by every worthwhile polling aggregator.

    If they were just taking the averages and spitting out results, well, it'd be nonsensical. You could maybe argue that Republican pollsters have tweaked their systems to be more trumpy but that'd be a pretty huge red flag and mark you as completely non trustworthy in your professional field.

    You can read Silver's more in depth and interesting explanation here:

    https://www.natesilver.net/p/are-republican-pollsters-flooding