NY Times polling has been kind of an outlier lately. In the opposite direction, they just had a PA Harris+4 a few days ago. Don't let the polling despair you, turn it into action
There's some info stickers the Harris campaign sells if you want to help lower that for the people around you. Or at least increase the number of unfavorable view of it
Some recent polls put florida at only trump+2 or trump+3 . There's a rather realistic case where polling error underestimating dems by 2% or more could make it a tight race
Polling errors over estimating republican by that much have happened in the past. In 2012, republicans were overestimated for president by on average by 2.5%
A place that would have moderators willing to lie would be a rather risky place to do a debate. I'd imagine fox news could end up doing false "fact checks" on her and letting trump spew lies with impunity
Fewer undecideds in polling than 2016. Makes the margins more significant. Harris is starting to see some state polling putting her at 50% or above which is encouraging. Hillary virtually never saw polls like that
Hillary was basically always at net negative popularity/approval. Harris has now gotten to net neutral or slightly positive
Election could still go either way but there are some differences
If you are curious what the most effective volunteering method is, most data suggest it's canvasing (door knocking) but other things like text banking, phone banking, letter writing are still effective too
Note about door knocking: you don't usually go to random houses. You go to houses likely to have undecideds or people who agree with you but have historically iffy turnout
Let's keep pushing further. If polls show a tight race push for a win. If polls show a decent win make it big. If polls show a big win, make it a blowout
There's also other problems with the book not in thr headline
Even the book itself has come under scrutiny: It promises that all of the proceeds from telling the story of aerial firefighters will go back to supporting them. However, as other media outlets have reported, including Business Insider, it appears that the proceeds of the book go back to an aerial firefighting lobbying company which Sheehy himself founded, which in turn, works on behalf of his own company, raising questions about whether the money is really being funneled right back to him.
It's based on the quote he said where he said he "created stories"
"If I have to create stories so that the American media actually has to pay attention to the suffering of American people, then that’s what I’m going to do,” said Vance, a U.S. Senator representing Ohio
Agenda 47 (styled by the Trump campaign as Agenda47) is the manifesto of the Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump,
[...]
In 2023, Trump campaign officials acknowledged the Project 2025 aligned well with Agenda 47
[...]
Agenda 47 and Project 2025 share many themes and policies, including expanding presidential power such as through reissuing Schedule F,[15]: min.00:14 [16] cuts to the Department of Education, mass deportations of illegal immigrants,[17] the death penalty for drug dealers, and using the US National Guard in liberal cities with high crime rates or those that are "disorderly".[18][19][20]
NY Times polling has been kind of an outlier lately. In the opposite direction, they just had a PA Harris+4 a few days ago. Don't let the polling despair you, turn it into action
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