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usernamesAreTricky

@ usernamesAreTricky @lemmy.ml

Posts
378
Comments
593
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • Look if you thought the polling bias in the previous election always determined the next one, you would've thought Hillary was in for a big landslide because dems were systematically underestimated in 2012 including in florida. Obviously it did not go the same way. It's not limited to 2012 either

    Pollster make adjustments every cycle. In this case, many have made some quite large ones. How much that effects the results isn't fully knowable until only after the election happens

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020

    ? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%

    Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes

    Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • Polling error has historically moved in inconsistent direction. Data goes back further than 2020. In 2012, Democrats were underestimated in florida by ~2 points. Romney was up 1.5% in Florida poll average vs Obama winning Florida by 0.9%

    Assuming it certain to go that way is not a given either. My point is that you cannot be certain about it

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • That's assuming the polling error goes the same way. That's not a given at all especially as many pollsters have made methodology changes such as some doing much heavier rural sampling

    Polling error has gone both directions in the past. Dems were underestimated by polls in 2012 for instance

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • We're not talking about national polling, however

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

    Jump

  • Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point

  • Kamala Harris to appear on "Call Her Daddy" podcast (Spotify's second biggest podcast last year)

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  • Kamala Harris to appear on "Call Her Daddy" podcast (Spotify's second biggest podcast last year)

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  • That was my addition, to clarify

  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

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  • Encouraging news about that from the article

    The biggest registration gains have been in the Democratic stronghold of Harris County and along the I-35 corridor, which now leans blue

  • Progressives Set to Unleash Swing State Blitz for Harris

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  • I encourage you to take some of the election anxiety and turn it into productive action. That could look like canvasing (door knocking) to phone banking, text banking, letter writing and more. Those all have been shown to increase voter turnout. If nothing else, it at least reduce some of the anxiety

  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

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  • A ~1.2 million increase in turnout could be significant enough to change the president and or senate race

    Keep in mind trump only won texas by ~600 thousand votes in 2020

    And Cruz won by only ~200 thousand votes in 2018

  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

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  • 'Pieces falling into place': Analyst sees Harris breaking 'doom loop' as election nears

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  • Even runs at a pretty good framerate people-who-take-every-outlier-poll-as-gospel

  • 'Pieces falling into place': Analyst sees Harris breaking 'doom loop' as election nears

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  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

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  • Gonna repeat what I said in a different comment:

    Encourage people to try to vote early everywhere. Texas has early in person voting from Oct 21 – Nov 1

    If you vote early, you'll have time to come back again in case there's some last minute changes to the polling places open or some other problem. Plus you also don't then have to worry about something like being sick on election day

  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

    Jump

  • The voter registration numbers are exceeding the population changes in Texas

  • Texas reaches over 18 million registered voters, the highest it's ever been

    Jump

  • Encourage people to try to vote early everywhere. Texas has early in person voting from Oct 21 – Nov 1

    If you vote early, you'll have time to come back again in case there's some last minute changes to the polling places open or some other problem. Plus you also don't then have to worry about something like being sick on election day

  • 'Scores of people leave early': Interviews reveal why Trump rallygoers bow out prematurely

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  • Done now

  • 'Scores of people leave early': Interviews reveal why Trump rallygoers bow out prematurely

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  • I would change the link now, but for some reason every time I try to link to the Washington post, it fails to post properly on lemmy. It's extremely consistent and seems to be limited to juet the Washington post. Unsure why it happens