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usernamesAreTricky

@ usernamesAreTricky @lemmy.ml

Posts
378
Comments
593
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • California voters to consider raising minimum wage to $18 with Proposition 32

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  • Though California minimum wage is tied to inflation now (since 2023) so it'd be able to be built upon without losing ground in the meantime

  • California voters to consider raising minimum wage to $18 with Proposition 32

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  • Since 2023, it is tied to the CPI-W in California. Other blue states are stating to do the same

    It makes pushes to raise it further like this a bit more meaningful in the long run too

  • Walz: ‘The Electoral College needs to go’

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  • He got his state on the national popular vote interstate compact as govenor. He's talked about it before and done more than most to make the popular vote a reality

  • Porn stars launch campaign against Project 2025 targeting swing states

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  • The same exact source or a different one?

  • GOP Rep. Scott Perry Went From Hailing Project 2025 To Knowing Nothing About It

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  • And even at that, it seems more like the registration as a republican was more something she just forgot to update for a long time for her. Not like it was a recent shift in her views/voting

    “I did as many people did way back… I registered in the party that my parents were when I started out,” Stelson said. She said since she was in a job that required her not to participate in partisan politics, she had not given much thought to how she was registered.

    “And really, what matters to me is not how one is registered but how you vote. And I voted for Joe Biden, Josh Shapiro, John Fetterman, Hillary, Barack Obama. Bob Casey. And when I started seriously considering becoming a part of politics instead of covering it, I took care of business.”

    https://penncapital-star.com/campaigns-elections/former-wgal-anchor-janelle-stelson-jumps-into-race-for-congress/

  • Removed Deleted

    Permanently Deleted

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  • It's u/whitehouse

  • Ron DeSantis is refusing to take Harris' call on Hurricane Helene

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  • I doubt the VP and President disagree all that much about "we should give hurricane victims aid". The president can informally ask the VP to do simple tasks like "hey keep in touch with this governor and see if they need anything" when they think you'll do what they'd do. The VP can't act directly on things themselves

    You also want to keep the person who might have to take over for the president at any moment to be in the loop at all times. You wouldn't want them scrambling to get caught up in the off chance they had to take over for the president

    Keep in mind he's also refusing to meet with Biden

  • Ron DeSantis is refusing to take Harris' call on Hurricane Helene

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  • He's also not spoken to the president either who has attempted to call as well. Biden is not even running for president anymore

  • 'Trump did this’: Supreme Court blocks Biden emergency abortion mandate in Texas

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  • Supreme Court lets stand a decision barring emergency abortions that violate Texas ban

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  • They'd get sued pretty immediately for that. It's very explicitly against the law to do so. It's illegal to remove voters from registration anything beyond 90 days out from the election. Voting rights groups and DOJ have sued Alabama for doing so 84 days out, they'd absolutely sue for after voter registration deadlines

  • Supreme Court lets stand a decision barring emergency abortions that violate Texas ban

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  • Today is the last day to register to vote in Texas. Make sure to double check your registration because of voter purges and vote!

    See how to do so below. Note that there's only mail and in person registration and not online registration unlike most states. Registration by mail must be postmarked by today!

    https://vote.gov/register/texas

  • Kamala Harris hits back at ‘childless’ attacks on Call Her Daddy podcast: ‘This is not the 1950s anymore’

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  • She does have kids as a stepmother. They just apparently don't count that

  • Kamala Harris hits back at ‘childless’ attacks on Call Her Daddy podcast: ‘This is not the 1950s anymore’

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  • George Washington did not have any children by blood either, so got to be before 1789

  • Mike Johnson won’t commit to bringing House back before the election for more hurricane relief

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  • Harris to sit down with The View, Colbert and Howard Stern in media blitz

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  • Look at their comment history, they're likely trying to be funny but alas satire is hard on the internet when people can genuinely have such takes

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • The leads in some of the latest Florida polls are now within margin of error of those polls

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • They are primarily focusing on the main swing states for president, but Florida does matter a good amount in terms of the senate though. It's a rarer somewhat close pickup opportunity. With Montana not looking as great lately we'll likely need to flip either Texas senate or Florida senate to keep the senate control. Or there's the close race in Nebraska where Indepdent Osborn could give us a 49-49-1 senate if neither flip and we lose Montana

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • My response was more so to the "you don't get to 'wish'" part. It could go the same way, it could not. It's not consistent year to year. Assuming it is when long term data does not support that, isn't helpful

    Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

    No where am I claiming that Harris definitely will necessarily be underestimated, I am saying it is possible. Or perhaps even just underestimated by less. Dismissing the possibility out of hand by N=1 is what I am responding to

  • Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

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  • An alternative reality is saying that polling error is uncertain? I didn't declare anything about it's direction or even that it couldn't be the same as it was earlier

    This is something plenty of election modeling people say all the time

    Over the long term, there is no meaningful partisan statistical bias in polling. All the polls in our data set combine for a weighted average statistical bias of 0.3 points toward Democrats. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases — and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office — but there is no pattern from year to year

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/weve-updated-our-pollster-ratings-ahead-of-the-2020-general-election/

    The reason there’s no long-running polling bias is because pollsters try to correct for their mistakes. That means there’s always the risk of undercorrecting (which apparently happened this time) or overcorrecting (see the 2017 U.K. general election, where pollsters did all sorts of dodgy things in an effort to not underestimate Conservatives … and wound up underestimating the Labour Party instead)

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-werent-great-but-thats-pretty-normal/