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118
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3 yr. ago

  • Actually, they are hiding the full CoT sequence outside of the demos.

    What you are seeing there is a summary, but because the actual process is hidden it's not possible to see what actually transpired.

    People are very not happy about this aspect of the situation.

    It also means that model context (which in research has been shown to be much more influential than previously thought) is now in part hidden with exclusive access and control by OAI.

    There's a lot of things to be focused on in that image, and "hur dur the stochastic model can't count letters in this cherry picked example" is the least among them.

  • I was thinking the same thing!!

    It's like at this point Trump is watching the show to take notes and stage direction.

  • Yep:

    https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/

    First interactive section. Make sure to click "show chain of thought."

    The cipher one is particularly interesting, as it's intentionally difficult for the model.

    The tokenizer is famously bad at two letter counts, which is why previous models can't count the number of rs in strawberry.

    So the cipher depends on two letter pairs, and you can see how it screws up the tokenization around the xx at the end of the last word, and gradually corrects course.

    Will help clarify how it's going about solving something like the example I posted earlier behind the scenes.

  • You should really look at the full CoT traces on the demos.

    I think you think you know more than you actually know.

  • I'd recommend everyone saying "it can't understand anything and can't think" to look at this example:

    https://x.com/flowersslop/status/1834349905692824017

    Try to solve it after seeing only the first image before you open the second and see o1's response.

    Let me know if you got it before seeing the actual answer.

  • I fondly remember reading a comment in /r/conspiracy on a post claiming a geologic seismic weapon brought down the towers.

    It just tore into the claims, citing all the reasons this was preposterous bordering on batshit crazy.

    And then it said "and your theory doesn't address the thermite residue" going on to reiterate their wild theory.

    Was very much a "don't name your gods" moment that summed up the sub - a lot of people in agreement that the truth was out there, but bitterly divided as to what it might actually be.

    As long as they only focused on generic memes of "do your own research" and "you aren't being told the truth" they were all on the same page. But as soon as they started naming their own truths, it was every theorist for themselves.

  • They got off to a great start with the PS5, but as their lead grew over their only real direct competitor, they became a good example of the problems with monopolies all over again.

    This is straight up back to PS3 launch all over again, as if they learned nothing.

    Right on the tail end of a horribly mismanaged PSVR 2 launch.

    We still barely have any current gen only games, and a $700 price point is insane for such a small library to actually make use of it.

  • Meanwhile, here's an excerpt of a response from Claude Opus on me tasking it to evaluate intertextuality between the Gospel of Matthew and Thomas from the perspective of entropy reduction with redactional efforts due to human difficulty at randomness (this doesn't exist in scholarship outside of a single Reddit comment I made years ago in /r/AcademicBiblical lacking specific details) on page 300 of a chat about completely different topics:

    Yeah, sure, humans would be so much better at this level of analysis within around 30 seconds. (It's also worth noting that Claude 3 Opus doesn't have the full context of the Gospel of Thomas accessible to it, so it needs to try to reason through entropic differences primarily based on records relating to intertextual overlaps that have been widely discussed in consensus literature and are thus accessible).

  • This is pretty much every study right now as things accelerate. Even just six months can be a dramatic difference in capabilities.

    For example, Meta's 3-405B has one of the leading situational awarenesses of current models, but isn't present at all to the same degree in 2-70B or even 3-70B.

  • Gretchen Whitmer

    "MAGA tried to kidnap and kill me" is a pretty good campaign narrative.

  • There's an ancient Greek story about a city where young women were killing themselves at an alarming rate, and the city eventually enacted a law where if a woman killed herself the body would be paraded through the streets naked before burial. After that law, the suicides dramatically went down.

    The misogynistic interpretation of the author recording the story was that women were ashamed at the thought of being seen naked, even after death, and so this curbed the suicides.

    My own interpretation is that it's hard to hide bruises on a naked body.

    No one should be trapped in a situation where they feel the only option out is suicide.

  • It doesn't matter if you're racist, sexist, or homophobic, it doesn't matter if you commit crimes, perpetrate injustice, blaspheme, or maliciously harm others, as long as you believe in Trump, he forgives you. It's intoxicating to some people. He's like the opposite of Jesus.

    I hate to burst your bubble, but that literally is the canonical conceptualization of Jesus.

    "As long as you accept him into your heart as your lord and savior, all is forgiven" is basically the lifeblood of modern Christianity. It's why you have people proselytizing to death row inmates to "save them" before execution.

    There's a lot of other aspects that are antithetical to canonical Jesus, who I don't recall having golden toilets or being tried for fraud in paying off a porn star to keep quiet about an extramarital affair - but "he forgives everything" is pretty on brand.

  • For reference as to why they need to try to be so heavy handed with their prompts about BS, here was Grok, Elon's 'uncensored' AI on Twitter at launch which upset his Twitter blue subscribers:

  • Been going down a lot of early Christianity rabbit holes, and my latest over the past few days has been oddities to the depiction of the crucifixion in John (allegedly based on earlier eyewitness testimony).

    Crucifixion as an execution method didn't even necessarily involve nails. It was excruciating because it dragged on over a very long period of time. Your body's survival instinct to keep breathing effectively tortures you to keep struggling to breathe as it gets more and more unbearable.

    Except - that's not at all how Jesus's execution turns out in John.

    He just sort of chills up there, takes a sip of sour/bitter wine brought up to him on the cross (19:29), and then not long after is just like "ok, peace out" and croaks midday.

    This is so unusual that in the evening the guards who are then breaking the legs of the other prisoners being executed to speed up the process for the Sabbath have to double check whether Jesus is actually dead by poking his side with a spear, when suddenly water and blood pour out (19:34).

    So, some fun facts about the Mediterranean in antiquity:

    • Euthanasia was a thing, mentioned a number of times BCE as performed by high doses of opium
    • Opium has a bitter taste
    • Acute opium poisoning causes pulmonary edema where your lungs fill up with fluid

    (Notably both Matthew 27 and Mark 15 deny that he drank the wine offered when he was on the cross, though there's a doubled denial of wine where the soldiers offer it that's found in all the Synoptics. In theory Luke depends on Mark, but doesn't have the non-consumption of the wine on the stick as drunk in John, so it looks a bit like the extant version of Mark may have had post-John parts of Matthew edited into it later on.)

    So suddenly dying only a few hours into crucifixion shortly after drinking bitter/sour wine and then having fluid pour out of a lung puncture sounds a bit like even if you put him in a cage it wouldn't necessarily have lasted very long anyways assuming he still had access to beverages provided by his mom. Also, a rather dark but humanizing perspective to the story if what I'm suggesting was historically correct and his mother effectively euthanized him to shorten his suffering...

  • We're all gonna die very very soon now.

    On a cosmic scale, that's been true for all of human history.

  • No matter what you call it, an LLM will always produces the same output with the same input if it is at the same state.

    You might want to look up the definition of 'stochastic.'

  • This doesn't work outside of laboratory conditions.

    It's the equivalent of "doctors find cure for cancer (in mice)."

  • This is why Hell is such a stupid concept.

    There's a literal "moral privilege" in that it's much, much easier to live life in a good way depending on physical structures in your brain.

    You'd be surprised at the rates of TBI in incarcerated violent criminals.

    Turns out damaging people's impulse control pathways leads to crime!

    Just yesterday I was walking past an old person on the sidewalk and had an intrusive thought about pushing them out into the street, followed by a thought of "man I'm really grateful that I have a functioning impulse control - it must be hell to go through life where thoughts like that could turn into terrible consequences because there's no mechanism catching errant impulses").

    While this guy should definitely not be out in public where he'd likely continue to harm people, I think we generally underappreciated just how little separates all of us from behaving just like him, and overestimate how much of his behavior is because of choice as opposed to circumstance.

    We shouldn't try to be so punitive with criminal justice. A functioning society does need to keep violent people separated from potential victims, but we really don't need to be such dicks about it.

  • Maybe. Allegedly MS is throwing their weight around to try to force it, which does seem plausible.

    Though I hope the board stands firm.

    Ilya is much more valuable long term to the company than Altman, and frankly the latter leaving is the first time in about a year I've been bullish about OpenAI's prospects.

    They really walked their core product back in the past few months despite expanding their productization of it towards low hanging short-term fruit.

    Ilya's vision is spot on with where transformers are headed as complexity increases, and is one of the only scientists I've seen that really sees that horizon.

    If Altman was standing in the way of getting there, it's better that he's gone.