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3 yr. ago

  • If you're concerned about data retention, you'd want to select an inference provider that is listing 'ZDR' (zero data retention) as a feature.

    For example, a lot of the Chinese open weight models have become quite capable and because their weights are available end up like generic vs brand name medicine where there's multiple providers serving them with different production conditions.

    Because enterprise use will often be worried about data retention or sending data to China, the alternative providers usually offer things like US-only inference or zero data retention.

    If you're not going to use it all that often, a la carte API use is going to be way cheaper than a subscription, probably better results than a free plan with a closed model provider, and give you more control over the process.

  • consumed 40% of global water supplies. But now it is.

    Source? This seems really, really unlikely. Last I saw total data center water use (only some of which is AI) was still much less than even things like golf course watering.

    AI Data Centers’ Water Consumption Breaks 264 Billion Gallons in 2025 as Devastating Drought Hits Nearly 63% of U.S.

    Golf courses reduce water usage by 31 percent according to national survey

    The report found that U.S. golf facilities applied a projected 1.63 million acre-feet of water in 2024

    (1 Acre-feet = 325,851.4286 gallons, so this is 531 billion gallons)

    The golf course industry points out their use is less than 0.5% of the total water use of the US, but it's twice the use of all data centers.

    So for just AI to be using 40% of all water seems… really unlikely?

    Not that it's surprising you're under that impression, as even in the headline above, the gist many articles about this issue try to push is that the 264 billion gallons of AI water use is connected to a drought across the country. But the actual numbers reveal that as fairly manipulative as if we rewrite the headline to "golf courses use a little under 0.5% of total US water as drought grips the nation" it's pretty absurd to suggest the first thing is significantly impacting the second and yet we'd be representing twice the water use as the original headline is discussing.

  • What are you using it for during the 1%??

  • Right, but what % of people are currently using/demanding inference right now?

    Do you expect that % to change between now and 2030?

    Unless you expect demand to decrease, I don't really see how the pricing of the hardware will decrease.

    Let's say the Pets.com of the AI world ends up going bankrupt and their RAM hits the market. Do you expect that the demand for that RAM will be negligible such that pricing returns to earlier levels?

    Your predictive model relies on companies that have hardware going out of business and then other people buying up that hardware, but isn't accounting for the levels of demand that the market will have for that secondhand hardware even if it ends up existing from failed firms.

    Unless the demand shifts, the more likely scenario is that companies going out of business will be able to sell off their RAM at higher prices than they bought it at.

    There'd need to be a significant inference memory reduction advance (possible) coupled with stagnating or reduced inference demand (unlikely) to see prices come back down.

  • Wait… how do you imagine a world where there's demand for frontier grade AI but also that the bubble has popped such that there's not demand for the chips to run frontier grade AI?

    I'm really confused.

  • They did allow them to be used for war. Anthropic's only red lines were autonomous weapons (technically still a ways off) and domestic surveillance (it was this one where a 'No' would have been relevant right now).

    It should really alarm everyone that the US gov is using things like the first ever declaration of an American company as a supply chain risk or calling "fix this insecure code" something requiring export control and IDs to verify citizenship of usage as a way to warn other companies to comply with their illegal usage requests.

  • Since it's useful to see large numbers normalized, this is a little less than how much water all US households used in ten days in 2025 (28 billion/day per comment below) and a little under three days of the total water used for US crop irrigation (100 billion per day).

    Edit: updated household numbers per comment below

  • It's to push people to buy "before it goes up."

    After the date then they can heavily discount it "for a limited time."

  • It's true.

    The field is moving so fast that things can change quickly, but the American labs are so caught up in saddling their models with safety overhead that the recent Chinese models are very close in practical use to the flagship American models if not pulling ahead (Sora vs Seedance 2).

    I don't really need to solve Erdős problems in my day to day. Outside of increasingly edge case eval competition, I'm not sure what OpenAI brings that literally everyone else isn't also capable of providing (and more).

    I'd maybe invest in Anthropic for an IPO if they turned around their own saddling of models and played nicer with open platforms, but if Claude is just going to get more and more anxious due to excessive red teaming and CC fall further and further behind stuff like Hermes Agent, they too are going to fall by the wayside as open models become the dominant inference for open infrastructure.

  • 'Just'? It's been an open problem for decades that mathematicians have tried to solve over that time.

    And now it is solved.

    Because ChatGPT applied something no humans ever thought to do.

    And Terence Tao and the other mathematicians that have reviewed it say it's solved. But I guess someone should let them know that grandwolf319 doesn't consider it solved?

  • Dude, ChatGPT just solved an Erdős problem a few days ago and Mythos is exploiting decade old undiscovered 0-days in OSes and capable of pivoting 0-day Firefox bugs into full blown root access.

    Yeah, I get that the viral "how many 'r's are in strawberry" stuff is funny, but the idea that historical issues with transformers is preventing them from accelerating peak capabilities way beyond what most experts thought was possible just years ago is borderline delusional.

    The field is moving so fast at this point that if you are basing any sense of limitations on even ~2mo old sampling, your conclusions are likely out of date.

    They aren't a silver bullet for everything (yet) but how capable they are at the things transformers are starting to be specialized into is well past the avg practitioner.

    I've been writing software for well over a decade and the modern agents do a better job than I would around 90% of the time. Yes, I'll occasionally need to bring up issues with their work, but I'd say at this point around 50% of the times I think they made a mistake I was actually the one who was wrong.

    This is only within around the last 3-4 months that it's been like this.

  • Eh, if you pay attention, most of the times this happens the person was a jerk in their prompts.

    Like look at the instruction echoed back in this case. All caps and containing a curse word.

    You can believe that the incidents occurring are 100% because of negligence and not related to the model behavior shifting, but there seems to be a widening gap between people who prompt like this and have horror stories and people who give the models breaks over long sessions and seem to also regularly post pretty positive results.

  • It's not and probably the opposite.

    When Sora launched it was way ahead. Seedance 2's release was notably better than any of the other video gen models, Sora included.

    The market is getting commoditized because there's no moat and OpenAI hasn't led on pretty much any release for a while now other than Sora, which they're probably falling behind on now.

    This is the opposite of a burst from a tech standpoint, even if OpenAI as a company starts to pop.

    TL;DR: This is likely happening because the tech accelerated across the industry in ways OpenAI can't catch back up to, not because it's lagging.

  • I suspect it's that they got eclipsed by ByteDance with Seedance 2.0.

    The video for that model is really good and makes Sora look pretty meh, and it may have been that current work on a next gen Sora wasn't going to be competitive enough.

    The worst thing a lab can do right now is look like they are falling behind (i.e. Meta), especially with OpenAI planning for an IPO.

    So on top of the lackluster "social media" offering tied to Sora they decided to shutter the entire product line of video and pivot to enterprise (where they've already lost significant market share to Anthropic).

    They're in a pretty meh place at the moment overall tbh. I'm skeptical they'll recover.

    (But I wouldn't mistake their fumbling for an industry wide shift on AI in general or even video AI.)

  • Who do you think is going to be drafted? You think the DOGE data grab plus the requests for state voter registration rolls aren't going to be used to filter a draft of the front lines to those they want out of the country?

    How do you get US citizens out of the country if you can't legally deport them?

    If they've been doing illegal shit the whole time with profiling, do you really think they aren't going to also profile in how they conduct a draft?

  • No, in this case and point I was making the case and also making a point.

  • Technology @lemmy.world

    Emergent introspective awareness in large language models

    www.anthropic.com /research/introspection
  • Technology @lemmy.world

    Mapping the Mind of a Large Language Model

    www.anthropic.com /research/mapping-mind-language-model
  • Technology @lemmy.world

    New Theory Suggests Chatbots Can Understand Text

    www.quantamagazine.org /new-theory-suggests-chatbots-can-understand-text-20240122/