Male here. By now I can and do express my feelings. It took a while. It is an odd power move at times, when you at will articulate and/or show your emotions. Some people can't deal with it.
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Yes, i am. I had a challenging health episode last year, and am a member of a legal framework for assisted dying. I worked through the emotions, the letting go and the planning. It was very liberating, hard and sad. And I think I grew as a person in the process. I had a good life, and am happy I can live more, but I can confidently say I know how it feels, and if the world goes to shit I am out of here. I am not suicidal at all and enjoy family and my body, food, music, etc.
I would recommend looking at Peter turchin instead. He is in YouTube, and works scientifically.
... so he is full of bullshit.
Is Jiang Xueqin a Scientist? What Are His Credentials?
Academic Background: Jiang has a Bachelor's degree in English Literature from Yale College (graduated 1999). He is a researcher at the Global Education Innovation Initiative at Harvard Graduate School of Education and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts Jiang Xueqin - Big Think +2
.
He is NOT:
A trained historian with a PhD in history A political scientist with formal academic credentials in international relations A scientist in the conventional sense (no training in data science, statistics, or quantitative methods)He IS:
An education reformer and administrator who has worked at elite Chinese schools A public intellectual and writer who contributes to media outlets Someone who explicitly identifies as "a conspiracy theorist" in his own words Lessons from Jiang XueqinHis Objective and Approach Self-Admitted Conspiracy Thinking:
Jiang himself states: "I'm a conspiracy theorist...but you can make the argument that some of this was intentional to implode the Chinese economy" Lessons from Jiang Xueqin
. This is significant—he's not hiding this aspect of his thinking. His Background Story:
After Yale, Jiang struggled professionally, rarely lasting more than six months in journalism jobs. He was rejected by major publications like The New Yorker and "spent his days at home, drinking and playing video games late into the night." He had difficulty getting along with colleagues and editors Bitter Lessons From a Chinese Education Reformer His education reform experiment at Shenzhen Middle School (2008-2009) lasted less than two years and ended badly. He admits: "I didn't respect those kids, nor did I communicate myself as best as I could. That's what I regret the most." His approach was described as "aggressive, forthright, and at times arrogant." ChinaFile Sixth Tone What He Offers:
Jiang describes his methodology as applying pattern recognition learned from Yale's English department and Harvard's education research to history. His academic training was "to read patterns in complex texts"—now applied to geopolitical events Jiang Xueqin’s Prophecies of Global Collapse and Civil War 📉 Critical Assessment Major Concerns:
No Formal Historical Training: Unlike Turchin (who at least has extensive published research and peer-reviewed work), Jiang has no academic credentials in history, political science, or any quantitative field. Self-Professed Conspiracy Theorist: He openly embraces this label, which should raise red flags about confirmation bias and motivated reasoning. No Peer Review: His "Predictive History" is essentially a YouTube channel, not published research subject to academic scrutiny. Lack of Counterarguments: As you noted, he presents theories without engaging opposing views or acknowledging uncertainty in the way a trained scholar would. Pattern Matching Without Rigor: His method of finding historical analogies (Athens-Sicily = U.S.-Iran) is a common form of historical reasoning, but without systematic methodology, it can be highly misleading. History is full of false analogies. Unfalsifiable Claims: His statement, "If my prediction is wrong, I re-work my model," is the opposite of scientific thinking—it means the framework can never be proven wrong. Jiang Xueqin’s Prophecies of Global Collapse and Civil War 📉What He's Actually Doing:
Jiang appears to be:
An educated storyteller using historical narratives to create compelling geopolitical scenarios A public intellectual who found an audience after years of professional frustration A contrarian thinker who positions himself against mainstream narratives (which can be valuable but also risky) Someone engaged in speculative futurism rather than rigorous predictive modelingThe YouTube Video Concern
Without being able to access the specific video you linked, based on the pattern of his work:
Yes, he does present conspiracy-oriented theories without robust counterarguments:
Claims about the "Jewish lobby" pushing for war Theories about intentional economic implosion Grand narratives about elite manipulation and civilizational collapse Self-fulfilling prophecies involving religious end-times believersHis appeal comes from:
Getting some predictions partially correct (Trump's return, Iran tensions) Speaking to genuine anxieties about inequality, conflict, and decline Offering clear, dramatic narratives in uncertain times His bicultural perspective and contrarian stanceThe danger is:
Confirmation bias (people remember hits, forget misses) Lack of epistemic humility Potential to spread unfounded conspiracy theories Simplifying complex geopolitics into good-guys-vs-bad-guys narrativesBottom Line
Jiang is not a scientist or trained historian. He's an autodidact public intellectual with a humanities background who has found an audience for his speculative geopolitical storytelling. His work should be consumed as:
Thought-provoking perspective from someone with an enjoyable life experience One possible interpretation of current events, not an authoritative analysis Speculative scenario-building rather than rigorous forecastingCompare this to Turchin, who, despite his critics:
Has a PhD in a quantitative field (biology) Publishes peer-reviewed research Uses databases and statistical methods Has his work been critiqued and refined by other scholars Makes falsifiable predictionsYour instinct to be skeptical is correct. Jiang's work can be interesting to think about, but should not be treated as authoritative. He's more akin to a public commentator or futurist than a researcher. The fact that he presents theories "without counterarguments" is a major methodological red flag—good scholarship always engages with alternative explanations and acknowledges uncertainty.
Short comparison:
Professor Jiang Xueqin's Predictive History
Background: Jiang Xueqin is a Beijing-based historian and educator with a Yale degree in English Literature and research positions at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. He has served as Deputy Principal at prestigious Chinese schools, including Tsinghua University High School and Peking University High School.
Core Methodology: Jiang's "predictive history" approach is explicitly borrowed from Isaac Asimov's fictional concept of "psychohistory"—a science that uses history, sociology, and mathematics to predict the behavior of large populations. His framework combines:
- Historical Pattern Recognition: He uses historical precedents like the Sicilian Expedition by ancient Athens, the Vietnam War, and ongoing conflicts to identify recurring patterns
- Game Theory: Jiang analyzes key players' incentives and concludes how different actors might provoke conflict based on their divergent endgames
- Historical Analogy: Rather than pure quantitative modeling, he draws parallels between past empires and current geopolitical situations
Key Ideas:
- Jiang predicts a coming era of spiritual exhaustion and religious revival, arguing that "the appeal of money and materialism is dying" and people are "exhausted, disillusioned, and frustrated"
- He sees civilizational collapse as linked to spiritual vacuum and elite failure, not just economic factors
- His analysis emphasizes how major powers overestimate their capabilities, underestimate local resistance, and misjudge strategic costs
Notable Predictions: Jiang gained viral attention for his May 2024 lecture predicting Trump's return to the presidency and a U.S.-Iran war driven by Israel lobby pressure, Saudi interests, and America's reliance on global hegemony.
Cliodynamics (Peter Turchin)
Background: Peter Turchin is a theoretical biologist with no formal history degrees who founded cliodynamics, a transdisciplinary field integrating cultural evolution, economic history, macrosociology, and mathematical modeling.
Core Methodology: Cliodynamics treats history as science—practitioners develop theories that explain dynamical processes like the rise and fall of empires, then translate these theories into mathematical models and test predictions against data. Key elements include:
- Mathematical Modeling: Turchin employs equations like the predator-prey (Lotka-Volterra) model to analyze the dynamics of medieval agrarian states as oscillatory systems
- Big Data: Building massive databases like the Seshat Global History Databank to systematically collect data on political and social organization across human societies
- Structural-Demographic Theory: Focuses on measurable variables including real wage stagnation, elite overproduction (growing demand for educational credentials, exploding MBAs and JDs), and state fiscal health
Key Concepts:
- Elite overproduction is identified as the most critical driver of social instability, alongside popular immiseration and declining state fiscal health
- Turchin's theory of secular cycles explains how population and warfare variables oscillate with the same period but shifted in phase
- Emphasizes that theories must be translated into mathematical models with precise predictions tested on empirical material
Notable Predictions: Turchin predicted in 2010 that U.S. political instability would peak in the 2020s based on 50-year cycle patterns (spikes around 1870, 1920, 1970).
Key Comparisons
Similarities:
- Both seek to make history predictive and scientific
- Both reference Asimov's psychohistory concept as inspiration
- Both identify patterns and cycles in historical processes
- Both focus on predicting major social/political instability
Major Differences:
Philosophical Differences:
- Jiang emphasizes that "powerful people are influenced by beliefs and warp reality to fit their beliefs—it's a self-fulfilling prophecy", suggesting agency and ideology matter greatly
- Turchin insists that "in science, data triumph over theories" and seeks laws independent of individual agency
Flexibility: Jiang acknowledges, "If my prediction is wrong, I re-work my model," suggesting an iterative, less dogmatic approach, whereas cliodynamics claims to be testing falsifiable hypotheses with the scientific method.
Both approaches face skepticism from traditional historians who argue that complex social formations cannot and should not be reduced to quantifiable points, as this overlooks each society's particular circumstances. However, they represent essential attempts to find patterns in history that might help us navigate contemporary crises.
Does it mention cliodynamics?
Zwei katzenbilder gefunden, beide runtergewählt weil Katze.
I think that is LaTeX on her arm. How sexy.
It's not working. We have relatively equal education in Germany, and we have plenty of intelligent, educated people voting far right.
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As far as Linux and free software are concerned, I am one of the wizards. LLMs won't go away. The question is how you use them. The knowledge they contain far surpasses mine. I ask good questions and extract the knowledge I can use.
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... And now they can skip one step! Win!
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Its slop if its useless or wrong. If it is i will come back and edit it. I need to test it first.
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There are several document management systems (DMS) that can be used on Debian and Android and can be synchronized using Syncthing. Here are some options:
- Paperless-ngx:
- Description: Paperless-ngx is an open-source document management system that offers OCR functionality and can extract metadata from documents. It can be synchronized with Syncthing by setting up a shared folder where documents are uploaded and automatically processed.
- Usage with Syncthing: Users can set up a Syncthing folder where documents are uploaded, and Paperless-ngx can automatically process these documents and extract metadata.
- Platforms: Available for Debian and Android.
- Source: Reddit Discussion.
- Mayan EDMS:
- Description: Mayan EDMS is another open-source document management system that offers extensive features for managing documents and metadata.
- Usage with Syncthing: Similar to Paperless-ngx, Mayan EDMS can be configured to process documents from a Syncthing folder.
- Platforms: Available for Debian and Android.
- Source: Reddit Discussion.
- LetoDMS:
- Description: LetoDMS is an open-source document management system based on PHP and MySQL. It supports document metadata, version control, and automated email notifications.
- Usage with Syncthing: LetoDMS can be configured to process documents from a Syncthing folder and manage metadata.
- Platforms: Available for Debian and Android.
- Source: Medevel Article.
- ProjectSend:
- Description: ProjectSend is a secure, simple, and powerful open-source file-sharing system. It supports multiple languages and has a responsive design that works on various screen sizes.
- Usage with Syncthing: ProjectSend can be configured to manage files from a Syncthing folder and synchronize metadata.
- Platforms: Available for Debian and Android.
- Source: Medevel Article.
These systems can be synchronized with Syncthing by setting up shared folders that are monitored and processed by the DMS. Syncthing itself supports the synchronization of metadata and can be used on various platforms, including Debian and Android.
What is your point? Why share this?
I had the exact same thoughts. And I am also an ex-christian.
Too many adults are absolutely clueless https://www.economist.com/culture/2025/04/10/too-many-adults-are-absolutely-clueless From The Economist
Ask Lemmy @lemmy.world How can I get YouTube to not offer rage-inducing stuff?
Ask Experienced Devs @programming.dev How can I show that a given open-source project does not exist yet?
... SaaS as in everpure, vast or dnn?