I'd keep an eye out for any talk of secession by states (I'd expect California to be high up the list). Another signal could be aggression from Canada or Mexico. As soon as relations with allies start to deteriorate, things could get bleak very quickly. Buuuuuut... The US collapsing would be internal warfare. Anything international would just be a lot of carnage and bloodshed.
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Gambling is very addictive and free money is a powerful incentive for people with little hope.