You are writing to likely dems with Vote Forward. The political campaign ones are explicitly going to likely dems, the social campaign ones are going to underrepresented demographics - which typically lean towards dems. Their research has just found that writing partisan messages doesn't work as well for increasing voter turnout, so they say not to write parsian messages. Similar for how writing by hand works better
There are still text banks still open! Here's some with Field Team 6
https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?show_all_events=true&tag_ids=22573
In most senarios yes, but unlikely flips do happen. It's not a zero percentage chance. For a recent surprisingly close election, Boebert almost lost in her deep red district a few years ago. She only won by 500 votes out of 327,000 cast
Edit: corrected spelling of Boebert (was previously Bobert)