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geekwithsoul

@ geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

Posts
26
Comments
358
Joined
3 yr. ago

  • Removed

    @tar_bin@otoskey.tarbin.net

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  • Yeah, these are popping up all over the place - all from different users with newly created accounts and no other post/comment history. Most definitively sus.

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    Permanently Deleted

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  • In addition to the point about Western mythologies dominating because of cultural exports, I think there is also the undercurrent of England's original mythologies having been "lost" and so the English were always fascinated by the mythologies of the Norse (due to being invaded) and by the Greeks and Romans (as previous "great" civilizations they aspired to be).

    Combine that with America's obvious English influences and the influence of England as a colonizer around the world, and those mythologies gained a huge outsized influence.

  • Elon Musk’s ironic voter fraud obsession

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  • I'd say yes, but he's so much of a narcissist and so self-obsessed, I doubt it would've occurred to him. Especially as back then he was 90% tech bro and 10% weird idea guy. Those values, of course, have since fully flipped.

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • I think that's sort of the point - if 2016 was our last "normal" election and early voting wasn't prognosticative of election results then, there's no hope it would be anything other than more variable and chaotic now.

    The point wasn't about a "return to normal" or else he would be saying it was an indicator.

  • Ex-Republican Candidate Has Bonkers Defense for Stealing Ballots

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  • Yeah, that pretty much sums it up. There's no way to reconcile what he's saying with the video evidence.

    Several citizens were permitted to run “test” ballots through machines assigned to their county, including Savage, who was spotted on camera folding the ballots into his pocket while confirming with an election official that they were “absolutely, totally real ballots.” Although they weren’t official ballots, the ballots did not say “fake” or “sample” and were being tracked and counted by the state.

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • That would be "ornithological" :)

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • Weirdly antagonistic tone and not sure when Silver pissed in your Wheaties, but you obviously have a hang up about him. No desire to go tit for tat, other than to say he's been more reliably accurate over time than anyone else when it comes to politics. It's like baseball - if you lifetime hit for .300, everyone is going to know your name.

    Also, the whole point of the article is that early voting patterns are not indicative of final results. That's not polling analysis or data modeling, that's just historical fact. I don't think Silver is perfect, and he's got problematic issues, but on this point he's just pointing out the thing the media ignores because it gives them headlines galore for the last two weeks before the election.

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • 2008

    Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states and the District of Columbia, missing only the prediction for Indiana.

    2010

    His 2010 congressional mid-term predictions were not as accurate as those made in 2008, but were still within the reported confidence interval. Silver predicted a Republican pickup of 54 seats in the House of Representatives; the GOP won 63 seats. Of the 37 gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of 36.[71]

    2012

    At the conclusion of that day, when Mitt Romney had conceded to Barack Obama, Silver's model had correctly predicted the winner of every one of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.[79][80] Silver, along with at least three[81] academic-based analysts—Drew Linzer,[82] Simon Jackman,[83] and Josh Putnam[84]—who also aggregated pollsfrom multiple pollsters—thus was not only broadly correct about the election outcome, but also specifically predicted the outcomes for the nine swing states.[85]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

    I'd list others but I doubt you'd read it anyway

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • He literally talks about that at several points. 2020 is a horrible baseline for looking at anything analytically because it was such an outlier because of COVID. Too many other variables in 2020 for it to be applicable for anything

  • The early vote doesn't reliably predict results

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  • What an odd take, and so orthogonal to what the article was about.

  • Removed Deleted

    Permanently Deleted

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  • What the hell is this shit? Well, I guess rather than trying to link to Fox News, linking to where they get their bullshit talking points from is a choice.

  • Character.ai Faces Lawsuit After Teen’s Suicide

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  • I probably didn't explain well enough. Consuming media (books, TV, film, online content, and video games) is predominantly a passive experience. Obviously video games less so, but all in all, they only "adapt" within the guardrails of gameplay. These AI chatbots however are different in their very formlessness - they're only programmed to maintain engagement and rely on the LLM training to maintain an illusion of "realness". And because they were trained on all sorts of human interactions, they're very good at that.

    Humans are unique in how we continually anthropomorphize tons of not only inert, lifeless things (think of someone alternating between swearing at and pleading to a car that won't start) but abstract ideals (even scientists often speak of evolution "choosing" specific traits). Given all of that, I don't think it's unreasonable to be worried about a teen with a still developing prefrontal cortex and who is in the midst of working on understanding social dynamics and peer relationships to embue an AI chatbot with far more "humanity" than is warranted. Humans seem to have an anthropomorphic bias in how we relate to the world - we are the primary yardstick we use to measure and relate everything around us, and things like AI chatbots exploit that to maximum effect. Hell, the whole reason the site mentioned in the article exists is that this approach is extraordinarily effective.

    So while I understand that on a cursory look, someone objecting to it comes across as a sad example of yet another moral panic, I truly believe this is different. For one, we've never had access to such a lively psychological mirror before and it's untested waters; and two, this isn't some objection on some imagined slight against a "moral authority" but based in the scientific understanding of specifically teen brains and their demonstrated fragility in certain areas while still under development.

  • A note on Universal Monk:

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  • Thanks! I'm not sure how much is patience and how much is just being resigned to the mods making the wrong decision on this one. I think the rule change is just punishing the community for their own past failings, but I don't really see anyone being able to change their minds on this one. And being a mod - especially on /politics - is by definition a thankless and difficult job, so I do understand where they're coming from in part. Unfortunately they seem to have learned all the wrong lessons.

  • A note on Universal Monk:

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  • Yeah, thanks! I saw it but unfortunately buried in work this week and last, so haven't been very active lately. But I did just reply in that thread to counter some revisionist history from the mods. :)

  • Minor rule change on Trolling:

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  • That is simply not true. Initially the replies to him were not antagonistic - he started taking that tone when the community asked him about the disparity between his professed beliefs and what he was posting and asking why he was supposedly voting third party. He then ran the table on the mods by engaging in a constant stream of spammy, low effort comments and you all did nothing. And the more you did nothing, the more frustrated and angry everyone became about him.

    The mods should at least be able to recognize your hand in how UM played out, instead of blaming it only on the users engaging in "slap fights". The mods chose to moderate per post/comment instead of also considering an account's overall pattern of behavior.

    The rules - as written - seem to indicate a level of judgement and assessment that has not been taking place, and user frustration is evident as many of us see how a pattern of behavior of trolling was allowed to continue for much too long because the user in question almost never went too far in any individual message but was quite clearly outside the rules when looked at as a whole.

    I admire your stance on not doing a fast-and-loose approach to bans to protect individual voices, but your job as mods also involves protecting these communities from intentional and purposeful bad actors

  • Is that what Lemmy wants to be?

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  • This is sort of hilarious that he didn't know who he was replying to.

  • A note on Universal Monk:

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  • <fistbump>

  • A note on Universal Monk:

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  • I do have to admit to feeling at least a little validated for having called him out way more for his pattern of behavior when it came to interactions with other users as opposed to his posts. His posts were bad but the way he engaged with anyone and everyone was downright toxic. /politics is a better place with him banned, and now Lemmy will be a better place for him being gone. I'm sure he's still out there on some platform playing the poor victim, as I doubt this was a "teachable moment", but I sincerely hope he gets help somewhere. It's cliché, but that dude had issues.

  • What subscription services do you actually pay for and get value from?

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  • Same! And if anyone disagrees, feel free to get in the comments! 😉

  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    Jill Stein schooled on House of Representatives in brutal "Breakfast Club" interview

    www.salon.com /2024/09/12/jill-stein-schooled-on-in-brutal-breakfast-club-interview/
  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    A longtime GOP operative helped the Green Party’s Jill Stein get on the N.H. ballot. Democrats smell mischief.

    www.bostonglobe.com /2024/09/10/metro/jill-stein-new-hampshire-ballot-republican-help/
  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    Pro-Trump Christian Group’s Dark Plans on Poll Workers Exposed

    newrepublic.com /post/185590/pro-trump-christian-group-poll-workers
  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    A Revealing Introduction to the Socialist Workers Party: "War on Hamas defends Israelis from Jew-hatred, deadly pogroms"

    themilitant.com /2024/08/24/war-on-hamas-defends-israelis-from-jew-hatred-deadly-pogroms/
  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    The Republican Party Is Over | Robert Reich

  • politics @lemmy.world
    geekwithsoul @lemm.ee

    Republican Operatives Swoop in to Help Cornel West This Election

    newrepublic.com /post/182486/republican-operatives-cornel-west-ballot-north-carolina