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exasperation

@ exasperation @lemm.ee

Posts
1
Comments
181
Joined
2 yr. ago

  • You can do anything!

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  • Producing value gives leverage. A salesman who brings in lots of revenue and profit can negotiate a pretty high commission, because controlling that level of revenue/profit represents some leverage.

  • No one told you when to run...

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  • You keep calling it a "die off" because you're being visually tricked by the misleading population pyramid. Use the actuarial tables instead.

    Among 65 year old men, the probability of surviving to 75 is 76%. The probability of surviving to 85 is 39%. The probability of surviving to 95 is 5.9%.

    For women, the odds are 84%, 52%, and 12% of getting to 75/85/95, respectively.

    Yes, these are higher death rates than at younger ages. But nowhere near what the shape of the population pyramid suggests, where the 85 age cohort is about 1/4 as large as the 65, which misleadingly suggests a probability of 25% of living 20 more years, when the real number is closer to 45%.

  • No one told you when to run...

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  • That's the baby boom moving up the chart.

    Yes, exactly my point. The boomer generation itself made the population pyramid look different at every stage of its life, which is why the 1980 chart looks so different from the 2023 chart. When you introduce a cohort that has its own slope from birth statistics, the shape of the drop off at 60 is confounded by the preexisting shape of the slope before they entered old age.

    So the appropriate method of isolating the variable that shows what you call a "die off" would be to just pull up the actuarial tables that show what percentage of 60, 61, 62 year olds, etc., die that year. Not to compare how many of those there are as a percent of overall population.

  • No one told you when to run...

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  • You don't think that 1980 chart has a very different shape? The current chart is almost flat from 20-60, while the 1980 chart is actually pyramid shaped, with the steepness is only slightly sharper past 60. And matches the steepness of the range from 25-50. Nobody talks about a 25-year-old die off.

    You're better off charting the actuarial tables to convey the data you're trying to talk about (death rates), rather than relying on a stat that is influenced by birth rates and death rates in an opaque way.

  • No one told you when to run...

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  • That population pyramid is a bit misleading because the baby boom coincides with the ages with the steepest declines. In part, there were significantly fewer people born in 1939 compared to 1959, so you'd expect way more 65 year olds than 85 year olds in 2024.

    Yes, the death rate is higher among older people, but the life expectancy of a 60 year old man is still another 20 years.

  • xkcd #3012: The Future of Orion

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  • Both Jimmy O. Yang and Sheng Wang are hilarious, but you should recognize that they are two different people.

  • what is the most "above your station" thing you have ever experienced?

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  • I'm convinced that Damon Baehrel is a semi-fake restaurant. Like, it's real, but doesn't actually take reservations or serve real guests, and the owner/chef lies about everything in order to seem more mysterious.

    This article from 2016 lays out the case.

    So I don't think it's a particularly good example of fine dining, as it's doing a lot of things different from a normal restaurant that is open to members of the public.

  • Sheep eating

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  • This reminds me of the boy who cried wolf. Eventually the boy cries wolf too many times, townspeople stop listening to the boy, and stop responding to the cries.

    The way we tell it, though, is that the boy is falsely crying wolf each time. And the townspeople eventually learn their lesson and stop responding.

    One hypothetical that I always think about is what if the boy is correct each time, and there really is a wolf every time? Well, I think the townspeople would eventually grow numb to the cries and stop responding anyway, and kinda leave the boy to fend for himself because they're sick of helping him. We'd see the same result even if the boy did nothing wrong.

  • The Terminator at 40: this sci-fi ‘B-movie’ still shapes how we view the threat of AI

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  • James Cameron has a history of making great things happen with a low budget, and spending millions responsibly to actually make a positive difference in big budget films.

  • The Terminator at 40: this sci-fi ‘B-movie’ still shapes how we view the threat of AI

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  • is a “B-movie” now?

    Did you not read the article? It was regarded as a B-movie when it came out: a low-budget sci-fi slasher/horror film. Arnold referred to it as a B-movie when asked about it on the set of Conan the Barbarian (which had 3 times the budget as Terminator). The New York Times referred to it as a B-movie in its review, as discussed by this article, which is also why the headline uses quotes around "B-movie."

  • Even the ones that trick you by starting out cheap

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  • "I got into barefoot running but mainly for the savings"

  • Even the ones that trick you by starting out cheap

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  • Same with asparagus.

  • Mirror Mirror...

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  • I told the magic mirror a thousand times, I never wanted to meet a girl in person! I just wanted a corpse. You can't disappoint a corpse! I hate you magic mirror!

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  • Which room though?

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  • Yeah, I understand the article to be saying that the Hitachi contract is for the train control system, including the software and equipment necessary for the operation of the train underground. The broader system upgrades include communications systems between trains and stations. At least how I read it.

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  • No, the $212 million includes the entire upgrade (and 20 years of support) of the automatic train control system. The full $700 million plus is for the overall modernization of multiple systems.

  • Food safety

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  • Yeah I wash my vegetables for grit. I don't even care that much about bugs, but even the slightest amount of grit is terrible.