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1 mo. ago

  • And on top of that, it’s still saddled with XTwitter’s debts.

  • I’d argue the models and software are the real long term assets. GPUs depreciate like any other hardware, but a better training pipeline, inference stack, proprietary data, and a model with millions of paying users can survive multiple hardware generations. The chips are replaceable. The ecosystem and customer relationships are much harder to replicate.

  • Perhaps. The difference with regard to OWAI, however, is that US companies have no alternatives to Chinese suppliers.

  • Maybe, but »excessive investment« and »failed technology« aren’t the same thing: Railroads, fiber optics and the dot com era all burned absurd amounts of capital, yet the infrastructure outlived the investors. AI could follow the same pattern: terrible returns for today’s shareholders, enormous value for tomorrow’s economy.

  • Using security as a convenient tool to sideline foreign competition is a slippery slope, especially from companies that built their own success on open research.

  • Funny how every dip was supposed to be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity until people actually bought near the top. SpaceX is still an incredible company, but incredible companies can still be overpriced. Reality eventually sends the invoice, even when the CEO is treated like a prophet.

  • That assumes demand is fixed. Historically, the biggest technology shifts created entirely new markets that barely existed beforehand. Almost nobody predicted today’s cloud or app economy from early internet revenue. AI spending could still prove excessive, but current demand is a poor ceiling for what future demand might become.

  • I think that’s probably the most underrated use case. We keep treating LLMs like faster search engines, but their real value may be surfacing relationships humans never think to test.

  • Wall Street spent years demanding AI investment, then panicked when AI investment showed up on the balance sheet: If Alphabet keeps printing record profits while building the infrastructure for the next decade, this may end up looking more like impatience than prudence. The market loves growth, until it has to pay for it.

  • Turns out the biggest miracle wasn’t multiplying loaves, it was making authentication disappear. An IDOR this basic on an app handling personal data is embarrassing. 🙈

  • It’s even worse! SpaceX includes XAi and XTwitter: cash burning nonsense. The only good thing about SpaceX is Starlink.

  • I’m a huge fan of the Fediverse, but the barriers are so incredibly high that it’s unlikely a large number of people - let alone a majority - will find their way here.

  • Isn’t he just talking to bots there anyway, who can’t buy shares?

  • Perfect shouldn’t become the enemy of better. Open Weight AI isn’t Open Source AI, but it’s a huge improvement over Closed AI where you get neither the weights nor the training pipeline.

  • The irony is that platforms spent years making anonymity optional, then built engagement systems that rewarded the worst actors anyway. Now the proposed fix is more identity, more biometric data and more addictive UX.

  • Ultimately, everyone, because associations, clubs and small towns are mainly or exclusively active on Facebook: anyone who wants to take part will still have to use Facebook. 🤷

  • They didn’t short rockets: They shorted Elon Musk’s promise machine. For years he’s sold investors a never ending stream of revolutionary breakthroughs that were always just around the corner. Eventually reality catches up. Even the world’s best engineers can’t justify a valuation built on perpetual hype instead of consistently delivered results.

  • Wall Street spent years pricing Tesla like a future AI empire instead of a car company. Now investors are getting a reminder that robotaxis, humanoids and promises don’t magically pay today’s bills. Reality has an annoying habit of showing up right after earnings season.

  • More and fresh is better.