dandelion

that would be good to know, but based on their analysis here I would absolutely not be surprised that they just ignored extra-judicial methods like a full-on coup ...

not sure, but I doubt it's that close

a secession is different than a coup, a coup is successful if there is a transfer of power (or the constitutional transfer of power fails, like when Trump tried to prevent Biden from taking office) ... and yes, even if Trump led a coup and was in power for a short time like the short life of the Confederacy, I do think retaining power after his constitutional term would be a "success" in the sense that I mean

and I do think the Confederacy successfully seceded from the Union, even if it didn't last long

and in a broader sense the Confederacy succeeded in many ways even if we acknowledge they lost the war - after Lincoln's assassination, the South was met with appeasements and there was a failure to integrate or enforce rule of law in the South ... from the perspective of Black lives at the time, I would say the South definitely succeeded in maintaining their power and control, and we see this even in the ways that massacres of tens of thousands of Black folks in the South after the civil war went unpunished: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedmen_massacres

Trump literally instigated an insurrection ... I don't know why "starting a civil war" doesn't seem like a straightforwardly likely path for him ... in particular I think that will be most likely at the end of his term, just like last time. The question is whether his coup will be successful this time, even though it failed last time. He has been more careful this time to appoint positions with loyalists (think JD Vance rather than Mike Pence), and has been purging the military with this in mind.

We are far from being confident that Trump won't succeed in another coup attempt.

At least I take comfort knowing that even if he does succeed in a coup, he doesn't have much life left - it won't be as bad as when the fascists won in Spain (36 years of fascist rule under Franco), or as bad as Stalin's rule (29 years).

Trump is 79 years old right now, he is very likely to survive the next 3 years (the rest of his term), but the average life expectancy of men in the US is 76 years, and his life expectancy is probably less than a decade.

This is a cult of personality, I find it unlikely MAGA will have much success post-Trump.

yes, I do think they under-anticipate the way that ICE could be used surgically - just flipping a few elections could be crucial ...

So this article has a narrow scope, it only considers two ways Trump might interfere:

This interference could take many forms. But recent events have increased experts’ level of concern about two possibilities in particular:
That the Trump administration will try to seize ballots and voting machines from key jurisdictions before votes have been fully counted.
That Trump will deploy ICE or other federal agents to the vicinity of critical polling places, so as to deter turnout among voters in general — and those with undocumented family members, in particular.

So for context, the people who don't think Trump will succeed are:

Wendy Weiser, the VP of the Brennan Center,

and Justin Levitt, a constitutional law scholar and prior Biden-era deputy assistant attorney general in the DOJ's civil rights department.

For context about the Brennan Center:

The Brennan Center for Justice is an American liberal[2][3][4] nonprofit law and public policy institute. The organization is named after Supreme Court justice William J. Brennan Jr. The Brennan Center advocates for public policy positions including raising the minimum wage, opposing voter ID laws, and calling for public funding of elections.[5][6] Its operations are centered at the New York University School of Law. The organization opposed the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United v. FEC, which held that the First Amendment prohibits the government from restricting independent political expenditures by nonprofit organizations.[7][8]
The stated mission of the Brennan Center is to "work to hold our political institutions and laws accountable to the twin American ideals of democracy and equal justice for all".[9] Its president is Michael Waldman, former speechwriter for President Bill Clinton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brennan_Center_for_Justice

So why does the article say the attempts will fail?

“There is a very high risk that the administration will use every tool at its disposal to get voting machines or ballots in the course of an upcoming election,” the Brennan Center’s Weiser told me. “But I don’t think there is a high risk that they will succeed.”
“I think every magistrate judge in the country would understand the difference between a search warrant to seize materials for an election that happened five years ago and a search warrant to seize election materials from an election in progress,” Levitt said. “I understand why people are worried. But it’s not remotely the same.”

So Weiser and Levitt think rule of law will prevail and the courts will not grant Trump the authority to seize election materials during the election.

What about ICE?

Even just having ICE presence at polling stations could deter certain voters, it's hard to say what the aggregate effects of these measures might be, from the article:

Their reasoning is simple: If ICE is harassing residents and causing traffic jams in heavily Democratic precincts, fewer Americans will make it to the voting booth in those areas. And voters with undocumented family members may be especially likely to stay home.

“Trump wants to project ICE as an all-powerful force everywhere,” Levitt said. “And they are, as Minneapolis is proving emphatically, not. There simply aren’t enough ICE personnel to blanket a modestly large city. We live in a big country. And it is hard to control through fear.”
Even in the Twin Cities — where Trump deployed some 3,000 immigration enforcement agents — ICE’s presence seems to have mobilized Democratic voters, rather than deterring them. In a special election on January 27 for Minnesota House district 64A, the Democratic candidate defeated her Republican opponent by a 91-point margin. In 2024, a Democrat had won the seat by 66.6 percentage points.
“There is clearly an effort afoot to interfere in our elections and that is something that people should be alarmed about,” Weiser said. “But this can be thwarted. And it must be.”

So the argument is that ICE doesn't have enough manpower for this strategy to work across the US, and attempting to use ICE this way could backfire and result in stronger Democratic wins like we saw in Minnesota.

What isn't mentioned are other ways Trump could attempt a coup or election interference that might ignore the constitution - the two individuals who are doubtful Trump will succeed are assuming the law will be respected and followed, and they don't consider other possibilities.

+1 for Lady Butterfly - she's the best!!

I literally learned to read so I could read Harry Potter books so I didn't have to wait for bedtime for my dad to read them to me; even though I was a "boy" I badly wanted to be Hermione Granger when I grew up

it's really heart-breaking that she became so deranged and hateful, a lot of us loved her books growing up

if anything it's more of a thing now than in the past, more and more GOP members rely on Trump endorsements to win elections

is this good or bad for Republicans?

on the one hand, it seems like that district of GA is likely to go GOP regardless, right? But I guess there is a question of who is lined up to replace him, and whether that Republican is a Trump loyalist or not.

sounds like depression™️

don't forget that like >90% of people take stimulants like caffeine every day ...

oh that makes more sense, thank you!

I don't get how spreading the claim that carrots help your eyes covers up having radar, it feels non sequitur ...

this is legit my worst nightmare

but it's our money, not his ... taxes?

yep, a guy with a history in law enforcement, had a job where he investigated claims of misconduct of employees, he seemed to use that to serially sexually prey on the people who he ended up investigating

can't be more specific for legal reasons unfortunately

not sure he was inherently evil per se, but what he did I would consider evil

this meme smells like cigarettes and mold, and I just know there's a casette tape of metal music in the car

dandelion

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

Trump has a plan to steal the midterms. It will probably fail. The nightmare scenario for American democracy is no longer unthinkable.

What is your favorite users to follow on here and why?

Who were some of your childhood heroes that turned out to be horrible people?

GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk becomes 29th House Republican to not seek reelection

GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk becomes 29th House Republican to not seek reelection

GOP Rep. Barry Loudermilk becomes 29th House Republican to not seek reelection

Permanently Deleted

Permanently Deleted

What's your favourite story from history that is actually false or exaggerated?

What's your favourite story from history that is actually false or exaggerated?

Do these look like fake cigarettes or used tampons?

Republicans to Trump: No $2,000 tariff checks

Permanently Deleted

Permanently Deleted

Thanks Gustave