Formerly /u/Zagorath on the alien site.
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I think tldr are slightly off the mark this time. Most of the points they made are correct, but there are really important extra factors they've missed.
Labor, our centrist party (centre-left, within Australia's Overton Window), did extraordinarily well at the last election. This was due to a range of factors, but one of the biggest is that the LNP/Coalition/Liberals & Nationals, our right wing (centre-right) shifted further to the right than normal, and ran a very Trump-style campaign, which did not endear them to the Australian populace in the way it did in America.
And that happened because in the previous election, the LNP lost almost all of their more moderate candidates. Some to, of all things, the Greens (centre left in reality, left in Australia), and many others to a group of independents who are largely right-wing on economic issues, but take a strong pro-environment, anti-corruption stance, known as the "teal" independents (for the blue of the LNP mixed with green). So all that was left of the LNP was their far right.
This most recent surge in the far-right One Nation's polling has less to do with anything happening in Labor and more to do with the continuing collapse of the LNP. Their leader has been absolutely incompetent, frequently trying on extreme positions, opposing for the sake of opposing, including backflipping in order to oppose even after Labor conceded some points to her.
The fact that the coalition is a coalition hasn't helped this. The Nationals are the more extreme wing, particularly when it comes to the environment (counterintuitively—you'd think the party of farmers would care more about the environment). And the two parties have been publicly butting heads, increasing the sense that they are in disarray, which is the primary cause, in my opinion, of One Nation's rise.