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Not_mikey

@ Not_mikey @lemmy.dbzer0.com

Posts
3
Comments
287
Joined
2 yr. ago

  • Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster. A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project.

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  • which offsets the data center scale out

    This is only true if everyone is always using the top line model, which most people don't. Both because most people just use the default, which is a low or mid tier model, and because it's expensive. The top line models are becoming increasingly niche.

    The tech needs to be smarter not larger.

    I agree, that's why more focus is being put on the harness and agent orchestration these days. You can achieve better results by having a large model orchestrate a bunch of smaller model agents to do simpler tasks then trying to have the large model one shot it. This doesn't mean the whole cloud AI business is bullshit, they're still going to need to build out a lot of capacity for these smaller models and still going to need large models to handle the planning and orchestration, it just means the call count for these larger models are going to be lower.

    So it's probably not going to be 1 million calls to a small model turns into 1 million calls to a larger model and the capacity never catches up, it's going to be 1 million calls to a small model and 1,000 to a large one which is more feasible to build out.

    people’s homes are being sized with eminent domain for this shit. It ain’t worth it.

    I don't agree with how the data centers are being rolled out, they can and should be built out with renewable energy and consent from the community which isn't happening. I disagree that data centers shouldn't be built at all or that it will be an unachievable Sisyphusian task to build them out.

  • Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster. A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project.

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  • Ok, remove the just then, the point still stands that it is a solvable problem. We know how to make data centers, it may not be easy or cheap but it's possible just like we know how to build car factories.

  • Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster. A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project.

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  • There's a lot of variation in quality with humans though.

    I don't doubt that there are some engineers better then the frontier models at coding considering architecture, maintenance performance etc. Those engineers tend to be more expensive though. I

    don't think an average engineer is better then the frontier models though, and say an entry level engineer fresh out of a boot camp would be significantly worse then even a tier 2 model.

  • Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster. A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project.

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  • The author seems to be confusing user scalability with performance scaling:

    The problem with generative AI, in the industry’s own jargon, is that it does not scale. The cost of growing from, say, a thousand users to a million is a key factor that venture capitalists examine when they evaluate start-ups.

    This is a question of whether openai can handle 1 million users asking chatgpt to write a basic html website. That can be scaled horizontally and is just a matter of building more data centers.

    The author then goes on to conflate this user scaling with performance scaling:

    Yet the returns are diminishing. The bigger an AI model is, the less it improves with each added parameter, and so it must be made bigger at a faster rate just to sustain steady progress. I asked a few AI researchers whether they could name any other real-world software that scales so poorly. None of them could think of any. Even outside the world of software, it’s hard to find a comparable example, given that economy of scale is the principle that has made light bulbs, cars, and clothing so affordable. By economic and engineering measures, generative AI might be the worst technology ever deployed.

    This is a question of whether chatgpt can generate a full complex web app. For this there may be a limit to this bigger model approach but this is common to most technologies, performance sometimes has hard limits. You aren't going to get a car to go 300 mph by making the engine bigger and adding more cylinders, there's diminishing returns, that doesn't make cars the worst technology ever deployed... maybe they are but for other reasons.

    Economies of scale also isn't about performance scaling, it's about capacity scaling. Capacity scaling for AI does reflect economies of scale, that's why you have these large AI companies building large data centers.

  • Generative AI Is an Engineering Disaster. A shockingly inefficient trillion-dollar project.

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  • Efficiency is relative, if there is a solution that uses less resources then the other solution is more efficient, but if there is no other solution then the solution is the most efficient.

    Is using fable 5 to do 2+2 efficient? No, because a calculator can do that with less resources

    Is using fable 5 to rewrite a code base from zig to rust efficient? Maybe since the only other solution is a human it depends on how you compare human resources to compute resources. Time wise it'll probably take the human longer since they require breaks.

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  • Wow, I have a very distinct line on my arm where my skin gets lighter, always wondered why but now I know

  • Whoops!

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  • 'At Least He Admits It': Trump Says Pro-Democracy Resolution Would Destroy GOP

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  • Another set chosen by the SC itself by super majoroty selection.

    Why this and not just have them also voted on by the people or at least Congress?

    This seems like something the founding fathers would've devised to protect against "mob rule"(actual democracy)

  • Republican Suggests Americans Who Can’t Afford Steak and Lobster for July 4th ‘Don’t Work as Hard as I Do’

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  • That's unfair, sitting in Congress is only part of the job. They also have to have steak and lobster dinners with other even richer assholes.

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  • Yes, especially once agriculture comes into play and people become sedentary they burn through a lot more wood then will naturally grow if not controlled by rules and laws

    If you've ever had a bonfire imagine how much wood you went through, then imagine having to keep that fire going, at least at a smolder, all day long to heat your home and cook your food.

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  • They actually weren't and that's also probably why we aren't heading towards an ice age. Due to solar cycles the earth should've started cooling about 7,000 years ago but it didn't and instead we entered the warmer holocene, perhaps due to mass deforestation and early agriculture releasing tons of CO2 and methane:

    https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Ruddiman2003.pdf

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  • Probably not incidental, if the population was sedentary they would probably burn through the trees faster then they would naturally grow back.

    Humans, especially in northern latitudes, burn through wood pretty quickly for cooking and warmth.

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  • Eh, it's not as if the romans were too kind to the forests. So if you're going back in time kill Caesar too before he genocides gaul of the protectors of the forest the Celts

  • Quote of the day by Gabe Newell: "Piracy is not a pricing issue. It’s a service issue" — Sony just proved why digital storefronts are broken

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  • Been feeling this lately with HBO, there app has gone to shit and I'm debating just pirating "the wire" instead of going through the service that we (my partners parents) already pay for

  • Peter Thiel: The pope is ‘working for the Chinese Communists’ by criticizing AI

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  • It's nationalism, guys like this think AGI is just around the corner and whoever gets it first will become a god, so anyone in the west calling to slow things down on AI is helping the Chinese communists win.

  • TIL the country code for Switzerland is CH and is derived from Latin name for Switzerland, Confoederatio Helvetica

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  • Yes, the romans named them that ironically to make fun of there illiteracy

  • Anybody Who Thinks Orbital Data Centers are a Good Idea Is Suffering from AI Psychosis, Experts Argue

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  • And at that point wouldn't the solar panels act as a sail and fuck with the data centers orbit?

  • Mexico's 'Batman' Vigilante Duct-Tapes Alleged Motorcycle Thieves To Lamp Poles

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  • How would this happen? It'd take a while to duct tape someone to a poll and if they move at all it would fuck it up, so you'd need them to be very compliant. Was he holding them up at gun point?

    Also why wouldn't the people tied up explain what happened?

    none of those found tied up have provided information about who carried out the attacks.

    This seems more like a cartel selectively tying up thieves for not giving them a cut and threatening them to not say anything.

    Or these could just be some random guys who crossed the cartel for whatever reason and the cartel did this to frame/embarrass them

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  • Typical elitist liberal, where am I supposed to get the money for this gun safe? You want me to sell my brand new f-150?

  • The Tokenpocalypse Is Here: Companies Are Scrambling To Stop Spending So Much on AI | Leaked audio from Accenture says a big source of AI token ‘chewing’ is people just converting PDFs to presentatio…

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  • converting pdfs to presentation

    I don't get this, We've had OCR for a while. All around San Francisco Ive been seeing ads for "llamaparse" with the tagline "we parse pdfs", like is that all you do? How do you afford this marketing budget?