I'm not sure I agree. I think most people can understand recipes or instruction lists and totally could program, if they wanted to and had to. They just don't want to and usually don't have to. They find it boring, tedious and it's also increasingly inaccessible (e.g. JavaScript tooling is the classic example).
But I think mainly people just don't find it interesting. To understand this, think about law. You absolutely have the intellect to be a lawyer (you clever clog), so why aren't you? For me, it's mind-numbingly boring. If I was really into law and enjoyed decoding their unnecessarily obtuse language then I totally would be a lawyer. But I don't.
Nonsense. There are way more programmers now than there were in the Windows 3.1/9x era when you couldn't avoid files and folders. Ok more people are exposed to computers in general, but still... Anyone who has the interest to learn isn't going to be stopped by not knowing what file and folders are.
It's like saying people don't become car mechanics because you don't have to hand crank your engine any more.