2026's elections could test how heavy trading on prediction markets affects races and results

Election-season trading on prediction markets, including in this fall’s biggest races, is skyrocketing while states fight to outlaw the platforms as unlicensed casinos and begin to worry about how high-stakes odds will affect American democracy in unpredictable ways.

Already this year, prediction market odds have gotten tangled up with real-life elections, and it is quickly becoming a hot topic for election administrators, who for years have battled misinformation and conspiracy theories.

Their concerns are broad, but many revolve around the fear that pervasive financial incentives will further damage confidence in elections and democracy if Americans think they are influencing the outcome.

“This is a troubling trend that election administrators across the nation must deal with,” said Jared DeMarinis, the administrator for the Maryland State Board of Elections.